Efficacy of source reduction in mosquito control

GeorgeEdappilly conducting awareness class on mosquito: Georgedappilly conducts awareness classes on mosquito menace in remote places where audio-visual facilities are not available.GeorgeEdappilly conducting awareness class on mosquito: Georgedappilly conducts awareness classes on mosquito menace in remote places where audio-visual facilities are not available.All except one who are interested in & working for mosquito control belive and advocate that avoidance of breeding grounds will result in reduction of mosquito population.

Even WHO says so.

But that one doesnot swallow this.

What do you think?

Chriswaterguy's picture

We can approach this

We can approach this through:
1. logic - more places to breed means more mosquitoes, right? I don't see how it can be any other way. Unless you are saying that there are always and unavoidably enough breeding places and the limiting factor is something else? (I don't believe this is the case.)

 

and 2. empirical analysis: studies, and looking at where mosquito-borne diseases have been prevalent historically. I think it's pretty clear that the places where these diseases have occurred have been wet - but that's just my feeling, and I'd welcome a proper analysis.

Perhaps we need to be a little more specific. By breeding grounds, I'm interpreting that as meaning somewhere the eggs can be laid, and the mosquitoes can hatch and grow to adulthood. Your GEM mosquito control is a "breeding ground" of sorts, but deliberately breaks the cycle. So I believe the GEM practice is a way of reducing the mosquito population, but almost any other breeding ground will increase them.

- - - -
Chriswaterguy

The interpretation of

The interpretation of breeding ground is verymuch correct. The micro water bodies used in GEM mosquito contro are not sort of but really are breeding grounds. That is why mosquito come and lay egg in those and we are able to use them as traps for future generations of mosquitoes.

You have highlighted a very remarkable aspect of GEM mosquito control that 'it is a way of reducing the mosquito population'. More over you have recognised another glaring aspect that we (can visibly) break the life-cycle of mosquito.

'The logic: more places to breed means more mosquitoes' appears to me to be unfortunately not right (**below). My argument is like this: Consider a specific area, say a village/town/state/country/continent. Assume there are 'n' mated female mosquitoes which have had their blood meal. We know that they can produce a total of 100n to 300n egges during their life span. Let us denote the total number of eggs they produce as 'm'. Suppose there is 'k' square kilometeres of breeding ground. So we will get 'm' mosquitoes as the new generation.

Now consider the case of having 2k or 3k or ... 100k square kilometeres of breeding ground. How many mosquitoes will there be in the new generation then? ONLY 'm'; not even 'm+1' ! Why? Because the production of egg in the womb of mosquito is an INDEPENDANT natural process for which the availability or extent of breeding ground is not a parameter. More places to breed will not enable them to produce more eggs. If they cannot produce more eggs, how can we get more mosquitoes from more breeding grounds?

When increasing breeding grounds cannot increase mosquito population, how can decreasing breeding grounds reduce their population? More over I belive that we cannot reduce the breeding grounds to such an extent that it is unavailable to them. Even if one accepts the hypothetical case that breeding grounds can be made unavailable to them, how far can their population be brought down?

**here: May I quote a pair of proverbs from my mother tongue (malayalam - incidentally this name is an example of palindrome) adhikasya adhikam bhalam and adhikamaayaal amruthum visham. This can be translated (approximately) as more means more result/effect/output/fruit and more of even eternal life-sustainer can be as poison respectively.

These two may prima facia look to be contradicting, but really are complementing and makes it clear that a function can be valid only within it associated (prescribed) limits. More breeding grounds need not mean more mosquito production. Number of available/existing productive females is the decisive factor in the growth of their population rather than the size or number of breeding grounds. Even if we have thousands of square kilometeres of breeding grounds, if there are no mosquitoes to lay egg in those we will not get even a single mosquito from them even after centuries. On the contrary if we have laying mosquitoes and no breeding ground presently, atleast annually once the eggs will hatch either in rain or snow-melt water and their number can grow exponentially!

~~~ ~~~~~

Chriswaterguy's picture

The thing that I think is

The thing that I think is missing here is survival rate. More favorable conditions, more breeding grounds, I think is likely to lead to a much higher survival rate than if eggs are laid on dry ground waiting for rain to come much later.

Also we might expect most mosquitoes to lay eggs close to where they bit. But if there is rubbish everywhere with droplets of water, then an Aedes (Dengue-fever-causing) mosquito that bites someone in the street can easily lay eggs in rubbish nearby that contains a little clear rainwater. If there is no rubbish, it will have less choices, and have to fly further, and probably lay in a less favorable location, or (best of all from the human perspective) lay in a GEM water container.

Gotta run...

-- Chriswaterguy (wiki homepage)

Survival rate: You have a

Survival rate: You have a point there. More favourable conditions certainly will lead to higher survival rate. But less breeding grounds is not seen to be a lacuna for them. It has been seen that thousands of larvae and pupae living in earthen pots as small as 2-3 litre volume. More over, have observed a mosquito flying from one wall to the opposite one of a room (3 meters wide) in less than 2 seconds, another one flying above the head of a person for ninety (90) minutes continuously and most of us know that one full meal is sufficient for 6-7 days. With all these, flying a few meters/kilometers is not at all a problem for them and will not have to lay in dry ground and wait for rain to come (much later or early). It is also noticed that once they locate a water body they lay large number of eggs in a single session. This may mean they get sufficient time to fly around and locate a water body to lay eggs.

It is true that mosquitoes will lay eggs in the first suitable water body they locate, but it need not be close to where they bit . Even though Aedes mosquito is a day biter (only?) biting someone in the streets is unlikely as people in streets will be on their move mostly. It has been noticed that a mosquito landing on a prey and biting it fly away at the slightest movement of the prey's body. (It takes 70-90 seconds to fill their belly with blood.) More over biting is not immediately followed by egg laying. Egg growth takes one week and blood protein is used for the genetic development of the egg. So egg laying is likely to take place only after one week of blood meal. Most of them feed at night and breed (lay) during day.

In spite of having rubbish every where since we expect only rain(which comes much later) to provide droplets of clear water in it what difference will the existance of rubbish make? More over if the rubbish is bio-degradable the rain water being collected in it is most unlikely to be clear/pure to attract Aedes mosquito.

In the absence of rubbish which collects rain water, if mosquito has to fly further there seems to have no reason why the new location found out may be less favourable; it can very well be more favourable one as well.

Chriswaterguy's picture

I hope to hear some input

I hope to hear some input from others as well - or perhaps some references to studies on this topic. Certainly mosquitoes are most common in areas where water is prevalent, rather than in deserts, so my feeling is that the availability of water is an important limiting factor.

-- Chriswaterguy (wiki homepage)

malaria_data_of_south_india:

malaria_data_of_south_india: malaria data of south india 3 decadesmalaria_data_of_south_india: malaria data of south india 3 decades

Chriswaterguy's picture

Kerala's data is very

Kerala's data is very impressive. I did some Googling but couldn't find details of their malaria control program - would love to know more.

I'm wondering what the very low figures before 1970 mean - hardly any malaria, or no reliable data?

And since you posted this in reply to my question - George, how do you interpret this data?

-- Chriswaterguy (wiki homepage)

Limiting factors other than water in mosquitoe's lifecycle

Deserts,Studies&Emperical analysis.

  • It is good to get more input from others, but some one has to come foreward no? Regarding studies on efficacy of source reduction I shall try to locate some and make it available here. About the efficacy of chemical methods, the statements in WHO's annual report will suffice. If we are looking for a study on efficacy of GEM method, we will not find any since no expert would have ever dreamt of it. Any one would consider it safer to take up a study on an accepted theory/methodology and enjoy the benefits out of it rather than burn the finger on a new theory propounded by an unknown idiot. Probably time is not yet ripe for it (GEM method).

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  • It is indubitable that water is an essential factor in the progress of life cycle of mosquito. Wthout water the cycle cannot continue, it will break. None can neglect or reduce the significance of water in mosquitoe's life-cycle. I am convinced that water has been purposely introduced by the creator in the life cycle to act as a powerful limiting factor to counter act the almost unlimited freedom it enjoys in its adult phase and also to compensate the ill effects of its ability to produce 100 to 300 eggs during its short span (4 to 6 weeks) of its adult life.

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  • You are 100% right on your statement that deserts are not the place for mosquitoes. Without water & warm blooded creatures (for females) they cannot continue their life cycle (males' feeding is not a problem). You are also right that availability of water is an important limiting factor in the growth of mosquito population.

IF we can make water unavailable to mosquito, we can certainly limit its population. No doubt about that. Doubt is about HOW do we accomplish it? Can we realise a desert like environment in an inhabited place? Will it be affordable? Will it be sustainable? Will it be environmentally acceptable?

I feel the answers to all these questions are in the negative - an emphatic NO.
If the answer is +ve what prevents any one from doing that and saving millions of lives every year.
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  • I have some graphs of the Malaris incidence of some states of Indian Union. They were prepared a decade ago for easy comparability. The time period considered is 1961 to 1994. First diagram is of states Keralam, Tamil Naadu & Orissa. Second is Keralam & Orissa. Third is Keralam & Haryana.

Keralam, Tamil Naadu & Karnataka are neighbouring states of southern peninsula of India sharing common boarders. Keralam has forty four (44) rivers, several lakes & ponds, millions of drinking water wells, numerous perennial streams, large areas of paddy fields that retain water for several months and areawise it is less than one-third of other states. Due to the comfortable climate & vegetation (implying wetness) national as well as foreign tourists renamed Keralam as God's own country.

Tamil Naadu is a much hotter & more dry state compared to Keralam. Karnataka also is similar. With these things in mind if we look at the number of Malaria cases of these states over the three (3) decades one would be tempted (or forced?) to think that more than water or wetness something else is a more important limitins factor. I feel it is ambient temperature.

This does not imply that water is insignificant in mosquito's life-cycle. What is meant is that along with water there are other significant or more significant limiting factors that we should not over-look.
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  • The second graph is to compare between Keralam (South India) and Orissa (North eastern India). Third one compares Keralam & Haryana (North western India). All the three diagrams show the strong presence of other limiting factor(s) which are worth studying.

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The emperical analysis given earlier is fine. Conclusions appear to be very much logical. Water contact is essential for hatching of mosquito egg. But my readings and observations indicate that the places where mosquito borne diseases have been prevalent historically need not be wet. Existance of water body in the form of drinking water wells or other ponds are more than sufficient.

The name malaria (of the largest killer of huma history - other than war) is related to mal air (around fowl water bodies) in English language. Its Malayalam (language of Keralam) version malampani is related to mountain since the disease was prevalent only in mountainous areas like Idukki, Wynad etc. The chances of hilly areas being wetter than level or low lying areas ae remote. The reason for malaria to be common in hilly areas in Keralam appears to be mosquito species specific (A.Fluviatills).

Now a days malaria outbreaks occurr in coastal districts. The reason given is that the species that spread malaria there now (A. Stephensi) has preference to coastal habitats. Coastal areas being sandy have minimal/no water logging other than wells. In spite of that, malaria breakes out occassionally - trigger being imported cases.
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  • Keralam & Tamil Naadu are neighbouring states of India. Majority of the days are rainy in Keralam. Tamil Naadu is much dryer with much less rain & rainy days. Even then malaria is more common there and most of the imported cases have been reported to be from there! Wetness, I feel, should not be correlated to size of mosquito population and associated diseases.

My feeling is that more than wetness, the factors that govern control or limit the growth of mosquito populationand associated problems are absence/presence of predators and ambient temperature.

The best strategy against mosquito menace (not mosquito) appears to be direct visible assured execution. Chemical methods did not produce sustainable results. Source reduction also appears to be not different.
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Response to questions of Dec 3rd. Thanks for the complements to the achievements of Keralam's Health Dept. I will try to provide more information about Keralam's malaria control program later on.
The very low figures before 1970 do mean hardly any malaria. To make it clearer I will upload another graph of Keralam alone. This will tell you some more things. Figures before 1970 appear to be very low due to the hugeness of 1976 epidemic.
Till late nineteen fifties India's malaria toll used to be very high. It was at that time that the Govt. of India and World Health Organisation (WHO) jointly executed the half a decade long National Malaria Eradication Project (NMEP) meticulously. By the time of completion of the project the malaria figures of India were brought down to statistical zero and the WHO declared malaria eradicated in India. It is during this & immediately following time that we find the very low numbers of malaria cases.
Once the NME Project was closed everyone slipped into complacency and relaxed comfortably. But since mosquitoe's task was assigned by God Almighty Himself, it could not afford to relax and so earnestly continued its efforts day & night. In a decades time mosquito succeeded intaking the malaria toll back to epidemic proportion. Thats what we see in 1974-76 period.
These are all plain facts visible to anyone. What I wanted you to do was to read between the lines. In spite of the fact that Keralam is much wetter and cooler with widely distributed rains throughout the year over the entire area of the state both the neighbouring dryer & warmer states are having much much more mosquito population and malaria.
Hope you get me. I have much more things to say but even this is too much for one comment and so 'am reserving the rest to the next episode.

A little more on limiting factors ...

This is in continuation of previous reply.

  • I have heard of a theory on this topic (limiting factors). It is known as LIMITS OF GROWTH by Club of Rome. Experts are of the opinion that this is accepted to be obsolete now. This theory is explained in relation to a wild environment where everything happens in the natural way and so the population of no species grow too much or too less than what is required for the harmonious co-existence of the collection of life forms there.

In the modern situation there is one life form which does not obey many of the rules & laws of nature. This is known as HUMANS. It manipulates things to its advantage. This is the root cause of all problems and disrupts the harmony essential for the peaceful co-existence.

  • God has implemented different schemes to control the population of various species and also to maintain the quality of each population.
  1. Death due to ageing is the foremost among those.
  2. Another one is predators.
  3. Diseases' (leading to death) is yet another.
  4. Next one is regulating reproduction. Most of the animals and birds have limited reproductive cycles - annually two or one, or even less. Elephant reproduces once in several years. Its gestation period itself is about two (2) years and produces not more than one offspring at a time. Lion and tiger, even though reproduce once in few years only, gives rise to 3 or 4 cubs at a time. Cattle (cow, buffalo etc) have gestation of less than a year and very rarely only get more than one calf at a time. Mother cow become reproductive in a few months from then. Sheep, goat, dog, cat, squirrel etc have smaller gestation periods but usually produce multiple offspring almost once in an year. Rabbits, poultry etc have more than one reproductive cycle every year and each time produce multiple offspring. Rabbit's gestation period is only twenty eight (28) days and mother becomes reproductive in a few days. But as they are prey to several predators, their population never grow beyond limits.
  5. In the case of humans several factors other than natural are actively present. Some of them are social, education & awareness, attractions like monitory/other incentives etc. In present society a pair of human beings takes 20-25 years for doubling. Where as in the case of mosquito the growth in 1 month itself is a phenomenal 5000-15000 %!!! Such a high rate of reproduction is provided to ensure the availability of a healthy and dynamic mosquito population every where even under adverse circumstances and environments and also to ensure that there will be no threat of extinction what so ever.

Since it is a very essential TOOL of God, as a safe guard against extinction of mosquitoes God have created large number of species of them with diverse qualities. Even though there are different opinions about their number, there is no doubt that it is well above 2000 (because The Encyclopedia Britanica said there are 2500 species of mosquitoes, the American Mosquito Control Association said 4000 and The Wikipedia said (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito#Evolution) 3500). Of late we find more species of mosquitoes acquiring vectorial abilities (eg. Aedes Albopictus in 2005-2006 in Reunion Island through mutation of chikungunya virus) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chikungunya#Epidemiology . This too is a safe guard against probable unavailability of vector/carrier mosquitoes - a futuristic plan of action of God Almighty!
But the very high rate of growth can result in its over population. It is to check this risk that the powerful limiting factors are introduced in their life cycle.

  • Water is the first and foremost among them. Unavailability of water certainly terminates mosquito's life cycle. Hatching process of mosquito's egg will not get triggered unless & until it come in contact with water. Aqua contact is inevitable to progress it as well.
  • Next limiting factor is predators.

Dragon fly is a very prominent one among the predators of mosquito. They catch flying mosquitoes & eat. It is an ancestral enemy of mosquito. What I mean to say is that during all the phases of mosquito's life cycle the dragon fly is a predator. (Dragon fly also lay egg in water. Its offspring - NYMPH - lives several months in water and feeds on mosquito larva. Every day each nymph eats dozens of wrigglers.
Another predator is fish. In the pre-insecticide period fish was a very prominent mosquito control tool. With the advent of DDT they were pushed to the back stage.
In India itself there are dozens of fish species that had been utilised for this purpose. There was very clear idea about the qualities these fishes had to have. Some of them are:
robustness/ruggedness, easily portable, fast multiplying, no food value for humans, small enough to reach narrow spaces to follow & catch wrigglers, surface feeders to ensure proximity to wrigglers, so on and so forth.
They fall prey to spiders & lizards also.
Sparrows are also reported to feed occassionally on them.
Water being bounded always, limits their freedom of movement (in contrast to their adult phase) and make them easy prey to fish & nymph.

  • Another limiting factor is their own feeding. Females of them feed on warm blooded creatures including humans. The feeding process causes itching to the victim and may end up in the premature death of that mosquito by the angry reaction of the prey.
  • Yet another limiting factor is the dependence of growth duration on environmental temperature. The life span in water that takes only one week in hot climate can get extended to three weeks (300%) in cold climate.

In snow covered regions like Alaska (the 50th state of USA), they get hardly two months to live and reproduce. This is because during those months only, water (generated by melting of snow/ice due to sun shine) will be available to hatch their eggs and complete their larva & pupa phases.

  • It is in spite of all these limiting factors that the mosquito menace keeps growing from bad to worse year after year and throwing human life from frying pan to fire.

We have succeeded in capturing the outer space, landing on moon, so on & so forth. Now a days affordable people are choosing moon/outer space as their tourist destinations. But alas, we are miserably failing in capturing this tiny little insect. At this point of time I am reminded of 4 things: a proverb, two jokes & a parable. I reserve them for future.

 As promised earlier I am uploading the graph of malaria data of Keralam.  

*The upload got discarded! Response was You must join a group for uploading a picture. The link provided took me to an empty space! What to do now?

Chriswaterguy's picture

Sorry about the upload

Sorry about the upload problem. We were experimenting with an extension to the forum site (Organic groups) but we've turned it off now. Please try again to upload.

Thanks for your description of the ecosystem. Didn't realize that the dragonfly larvae eat mosquito larvae... -- Chriswaterguy (wiki homepage)

Malaria data of Keralam 1964-'94 Trying to upload again

Saw your remark. Tried upload several times. Din't go. Picture appears in the preview, but doesn't go up when submitted. Then I thought it may be because pic is in 'gif' format. So tried with another one that is in 'jpg'. That too didn't go. Then tried 'attach a file' option; same result. Then responded to the 'join a group b4 uploading' warning. Got same -ve result as yesterday.
Finally tried uploading same old on that was already uploaded. But alas, that also didn't go!
Then only noticed that the already uploaded pics also doesn't appear in the page.

curtbeckmann's picture

old pics work again... trying a new pic

CurtBeckmann faviconfavicon, Appropedia guy

Kerala malaria cases graph upload again

Mosquito data of KeralamMosquito data of Keralam
Thank you, both CurtBeckmann & Chris, for the speedy action. This time it worked. The pic is in. Eager to see your comments.
Georgedappilly

Chriswaterguy's picture

Why wasn't the 1970s increase handled successfully?

In an earlier comment you said:

Till late nineteen fifties India's malaria toll used to be very high. It was at that time that the Govt. of India and World Health Organisation (WHO) jointly executed the half a decade long National Malaria Eradication Project (NMEP) meticulously. By the time of completion of the project the malaria figures of India were brought down to statistical zero and the WHO declared malaria eradicated in India. It is during this & immediately following time that we find the very low numbers of malaria cases.
Once the NME Project was closed everyone slipped into complacency and relaxed comfortably. But since mosquitoe's task was assigned by God Almighty Himself, it could not afford to relax and so earnestly continued its efforts day & night. In a decades time mosquito succeeded intaking the malaria toll back to epidemic proportion. Thats what we see in 1974-76 period.

My question is: When the malaria toll started rising again, why didn't the government immediately implement the same measures they had used in the 50s? Or did they do this, but for some reason it didn't work?

-- Chriswaterguy (wiki homepage)

The Government DID act but its sword had rusted by that time!

As we see from the graph, there was a decade long effort to combat the exponential rise of 1970's. I find a few reasons for the failure of those.

  • The inefficiency or lethargy of the feed back system gave sufficient time for the problem to grow high.
  • The weapon (DDT) used in the earlier attack had lost its striking power since mosquito had developed resistance against DDT by that time.
  • Probably there would not have been liberal cash flow as in the case of previous occassion.
  • Even though the graph show high rise, till 1970 the total annual # of cases were less than a megere 500 and so its quite likely that the implementing agency would have handled the situation very lightly! This could be the reason why the toll could not be brought below even 50%.
  • Another reason can be the smallness of the absolute number of cases. It was only 6000 in a population of 25,000,000 and it was brought down to 3000 (ie 0.024% brought down to 0.012%). Achieving figures below that may be like 6-zigma goal. I don't say it is unachievable, because such a goal was achieved in the previous project. As I mentioned earlier in this comment, the implementing agencies would not have felt the need for that.
  • The almost vertical rise of graph (ascending like a rocket) after 1986 (which marks the end of second project) and the almost horizontal progress (ascending like an air craft) of it during 1964-72 tells us about the loss of efficacy of DDT in destroying mosquitoes.
  • A google alert mail to me last week on mosquito control news says that residual DDT spraying is started in xxx country (I forgot the name. After all name of the country is immaterial in this case. Which ever is the country, our fellow human beings only are going to suffer the ill effects of that!). You must be remembering that the WHO had banned the use of DDT some 3 decades ago telling that its use is harmful to animal & bird life forms. In 2007 they lifted the ban. Then I tried to make it an issue, but it didn't catch up. What an individual like me can do other than shout in wilderness to be unheard?

Now I have a question: Has the WHO or anybody for that matter improved the DDT and made it safe/harmless to humans atleast????? Has anbody tried to confirn that DDT can still destroy mosquito as well as remain harmless to other life forms? If not what is the credibility of the WHO? ULTIMATELY WHICH DECISION OF THE WHO IS THE RIGHT ONE - THE BAN ON DDT OR LIFTING OF THE BAN ON DDT?

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